Did O.C. home price really fall near a 2 year low?

This article below was posted by the Orange County Register (click on the hyperlink to see original posting).  I have added my comments at the bottom and I highlighted the bold blue text in the article!

O.C. home price fall near 2-year low

March 11th, 2011, 12:22 pm · posted by Jon Lansner

Highlights of DataQuick’s Orange County homebuying report. For the 22 business days ending February 24 – the latest numbers — Orange County’s real estate market saw …

  • Median selling price for all residences of $406,500 – that is off 2.9% vs. a year ago. Last month full lower? April 2009 — $380,000!
  • Total Orange County sales of 1,929 residences closed in the latest period — that is off down 8.0% vs. a year ago.
  • Note: 7 of 83 Orange County ZIPs had both rising sales and prices in the period. Is your ZIP one of those neighborhoods?

Here’s the breakdown of recent activity by key category; included is how the latest results compare to the average monthly sales pace from 1988 through 2010:

Slice Price Price vs. year ago Sales Sales vs. year ago Sales vs. ’88-’10 avg.
Houses $465,000 -4.1% 1,323 -10.0% -41.4%
Condos $292,500 +2.3% 698 -8.6% -18.9%
New $581,500 +6.1% 138 +21.1% -73.8%
All O.C. $406,500 -2.9% 1,929 -8.0% -47.1%

And more analysis ….

  • $406,500 median selling price is 37% below June 2007′s peak of $645,000.
  • Current price is 9.7% below 2010′s peak (May and July) of $450,000.
  • The most recent median is 10% above the cyclical low hit in January 2009 at $370,000 — so the median has recouped 13% of the $275,000 price drop from the peak.
  • Compared to cyclical low, single-family house median is 11% higher ($418,250 in January 2009); condo median is 16% higher ($252,000 in March 2009.) Builder prices for new homes are 37% above June 2009′s $424,000 bottom.
  • The median selling price of a single-family home is 37% less than their peak pricing (June ’07). Condos sell 38% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 33% below their February ’05 top.
  • Single-family homes were 59% more expensive than condos in this period vs. 70% a year ago. From 1988-2010, the average house/condo gap was 57%.
  • Builder’s new homes sales were 7% of all residences sold in the period vs. 5% a year ago. From 1988-2010, builders did 14% of the Orange County homeselling.


Additional Comments by Aaron Zapata

As you can tell from these numbers, the prices of homes have come down since last year.  We are still running 11% higher than the lowest point 2 years ago.  Also, please note that this data is a snapshot of only 22 business days. You can never use only 22 business days to determine if the housing market is going up or down. Imagine if you judged your whole life based on the way you felt when you had a 3 week cold…it would not be accurate.

If you’d like a local trend analysis going back two years for your zip code, contact us today. We’ll tell you what you need to know so that you can make an informed decision.

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